Friday, March 20, 2009

Future Forecasting by Business School Method

Happy vernal equinox, what a nice time to be out on the streets. And I have another treat for you, some business school thinking. In Diane's honor, we'll call it Tentcitying©.

Any fool knows that a business making money is the ideal economic gain for the whole economy, right? Okay, leading off with any fool was the hint that we are business forecasting - something that economists know is pure tomfoolery. For your business community, however, forecasting has been manipulative only. The very concept of 'consumer confidence' tells us that. If properly stoked up, the consumer will be a fool and make the choice you have told him/her is the right one. At bottom, knowing that it is the choice that is right for your particular business interest, the consumer accept the view that what is good for you is good for him/her.

Time for a little reverse psychology. Instead of sticking to facts which us nerds tend to do, trying to tell the financial whizzes that if you kill the means of consumers, you kill the geese laying the golden eggs. No, let's give them a ruler they can swallow. Yes, that's a killer image for me, too.

Taking jobs overseas has meant cheap salaries. That meant a profit boost for companies, one that may have meant jobless consumers but of course the assumption passed off in the 70's was that we in the U.S. would move up to technologically advanced jobs, weeding out the service level of workers into purely low-wage jobs where we knew they would be comfortable. These are the Randian assumption of inevitable failures who just aren't up to an ideal society - the ruthless on top and the incapable of ruthlessness on the bottom.

Since weeding out our manufacturing class has been so good for business - oh hush, we're looking at profits from wage and benefit savings, not sales - maybe we can move on to other spheres of success.

Outsourcing firms have been a growing business community and are developing whole factories of technologically advanced workers for peanuts in 'developing' countries. There's new territory to plow there.

The FP branches are suffering from all these attacks, and hiding in the closet from the threat writers presented by Ed Liddy who are talking piano wire. No reason that financial planning can't be done in factories abroad, say, in Indonesia. It's all the same to the business if the work is done under banana trees instead of in the Maple Lanes of traditional America. And you are surely following me? The wage savings would be immense.

It certainly doesn't take even speaking English as a first language to think up toxic bundles that suck in bad debts, hiring a ratings firm that will tell potential investors the bundles are pure gold, and hiring brokers who will sell anything for a commission level that is sure to numb the conscience. That's basic human nature, if you're a devotee of Randian, I mean, business science reasoning.

What was your question? Oh, right, what about the sales pitch we've been putting out about the perpetrators of the economic crimes being essential personnel that need great retention benefits to stay on? Nothing could be more simple. We've taken the public's feelings into consideration and ... retrained those essential personnel for other work. We're coming out with a line of mobile stock carts, to be deployed onto the highways and byways. Coming soon to a street near you.

Treat them kindly. If you can't spring for the stock, buy the apples.

The fact that sending salaries offshore is going to further damage our consumer economy hasn't penetrated yet, so why should it now? And in the words of Alan Greenspan, the effects will be widely dispersed. Don't listen to those creaking sounds, they're gears turning, not collapse.

This is copyrighted, it's too functional for government work.

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