Another Memo from Downing Street

Thanks to Moonbootica's comment at Eschaton yesterday, I learned even more about the regime's plans to justify the invasion of Iraq. Her tip led me to the Guardian (UK) article which adds some really fascinating details to the run-up of the war.

A memo of a two-hour meeting between the two leaders at the White House on January 31 2003 - nearly two months before the invasion - reveals that Mr Bush made it clear the US intended to invade whether or not there was a second UN resolution and even if UN inspectors found no evidence of a banned Iraqi weapons programme.

The disclosures come in a new edition of Lawless World, by Phillipe Sands, a QC and professor of international law at University College, London. Professor Sands last year exposed the doubts shared by Foreign Office lawyers about the legality of the invasion in disclosures which eventually forced the prime minister to publish the full legal advice given to him by the attorney general, Lord Goldsmith.

The memo seen by Prof Sands reveals:

· Mr Bush told Mr Blair that the US was so worried about the failure to find hard evidence against Saddam that it thought of "flying U2 reconnaissance aircraft planes with fighter cover over Iraq, painted in UN colours". Mr Bush added: "If Saddam fired on them, he would be in breach [of UN resolutions]".

· Mr Bush even expressed the hope that a defector would be extracted from Iraq and give a "public presentation about Saddam's WMD". He is also said to have referred Mr Blair to a "small possibility" that Saddam would be "assassinated".

· Mr Blair told the US president that a second UN resolution would be an "insurance policy", providing "international cover, including with the Arabs" if anything went wrong with the military campaign, or if Saddam increased the stakes by burning oil wells, killing children, or fomenting internal divisions within Iraq.

· Mr Bush told the prime minister that he "thought it unlikely that there would be internecine warfare between the different religious and ethnic groups". Mr Blair did not demur, according to the book. [Emphasis added]

As far as I can tell, the Blair government has not flatly denied the statements made by Mr. Sands, although I haven't checked the net for any follow-up today.

What intrigues me about this information is that it reveals that the Emperor in Chief was grasping for anything to justify the war that he fully intended even before his regime was sworn in.

What concerns me about this information is that it suggests Mr. Bush was perfectly willing to set up a bogus scheme involving the UN without the UN's knowledge. Did he really think that the UN wouldn't figure out that none of its planes were in the air over Iraq on the date and time in question and that the plane was a fake? Did he really think that wouldn't make a difference? Either he is very stupid or he is very arrogant, although an argument can certainly be made for "c", both.

Finally, what galls me is that he could make a statement that it would be "unlikely" that Iraq would descend into a civil war once Saddam was removed from power to another head of state. I am no Middle East expert, nor do I play one on tv, but even I was aware of the longstanding animosity among the Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds.

It took nearly a month for even a mention of the Downing Street Memos in the US Press after the story broke in the Times of London. I wonder how long it will take the press of this country to mention this story. I also wonder if they will even bother.