Sunday, October 08, 2006

It's the Iraq War, Stupid

The GOP takes great delight in branding the Democrats as being weak on terrorism because many Democrats think the Iraq morass is going nowhere and a troop withdrawal based on a well-published time table is the best we can hope for at this time. The GOP argument runs something like this: if the terrorists/insurgents know our time table, they will (a) sit quietly until we're gone, and then all hell will break loose; or (b) stiffen their resolve at having beaten us.

Well, one Middle East scholar disagrees with the GOP argument. Prof. Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern Studies, and he published a piece on ynet which argues that a time table is absolutely necessary.

Try as it may to put the best face on it, the American intelligence agencies’ assessment of global terrorism trends is damning the Bush administration in whichever way we look at it.

In many ways the report stated the obvious: The Iraq war has contributed directly to the rise of Islamic radicalism and the diffusion of the Jihad ideology globally, and made the overall problem of terrorism considerably worse.

What is tragically sad is not the report’s findings but the Bush administration’s stubborn refusal to acknowledge that the Iraq war and the occupation have enraged Arabs and Muslims throughout the world.

Instead of dealing with the disastrous repercussions of the war and developing a viable exit strategy, the administration continues to link international terrorism to Iraq when in fact Iraq itself was thrown into a civil war.

...It is clear that the continued occupation in itself has provided the greatest motivation for the Sunni Jihadis, Ba’athists and Saddamists to violently resist the American presence. The Shiites want American troops to stay, not to preserve democracy but to consolidate their power base and blunt any political challenge.

Whereas there is a general public consensus that the United States cannot simply fold its tent in Iraq and leave, a timeframe (up to two years) for withdrawal of American forces must, nevertheless, be established. There is no evidence, as the administration contends that such a timetable will hand a victory to the insurgents or embolden the terrorist groups to lay in wait or intensify their attacks to accelerate the American departure.

If the intelligence report has any merit then it must be clear that ending the occupation will suck out much of the insurgents’ wind and greatly mitigate the motivation of many Jihadis to wage a blind war of terror against the United States and its allies.

Moreover, as long as the Shiites led al-Maliki government is allowed to exploit the presence of American forces to promote its own sectarian agenda, the United States is playing into their hand and thereby perpetuating the corruption that has swept most government officials and ministries.

This administration can hardly be forgiven for adopting misguided policy toward Iraq based on neoconservative wishful thinking but it cannot be forgiven for manipulating the information about the situation in Iraq to mislead the public by insisting on the correctness of its defunct policy.

Neither the war on terror nor the war in Iraq can be won unless the administration abandoned its failed “stays the course” policy. A timeframe is needed for withdrawal of American forces that have already made great sacrifices far beyond the call of duty.
[Emphasis added]

By giving the al-Maliki government notice that we will not be there forever to prop it up, we will be giving it notice that Mr. al-Maliki and his colleagues had better get their act together, and quickly. The only viable way to staunch the bleeding of both Iraqis and US service personnel is to start an orderly withdrawal.

It's no longer a matter of winning or losing: that has already been decided. It's now a matter of saving lives and saving a country.

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