Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Baby Steps For North Korea

Under the accord reached yesterday with North Korea, in return for 50,000 tons of fuel oil in energy assistance, the reactor at Yongbyon will be shut down and international inspectors will be allowed supervision of the shutting down. Banking disputes with the U.S. will be 'resolved' and talks begun for normalization of relations with the U.S. The nuclear weaponry and nuclear stockpile developed over the past six years will not be affected, nor will any facilities other than the one at Yongbyon.

The drawback is that North Korea keeps, for now, the weapons and plutonium stockpile it has amassed. Also, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice acknowledged yesterday, the first real test of whether dictator Kim Jong Il will give up his nukes lies in a less clearly defined future. According to the plan, North Korea is to permanently disable the Yongbyon facilities and provide a "complete declaration of all nuclear programs" in exchange for the equivalent of 950,000 more barrels of oil. How and when it will accomplish the disablement, how its disclosure will be verified and what else it might receive in exchange remain to be worked out; among the many difficulties is the North's refusal to acknowledge a secret uranium enrichment program. As Ms. Rice said, those steps would be "a sign that the North Koreans may, in fact, be ready to make a strategic choice" to give up nuclear weapons.

It is really encouraging that this administration has actually stuck to a bargaining process that has resulted in a first step. Future energy gifts will require further steps toward disarming, and North Korea has taken a first small step toward accomodating the world of relationships which it has eschewed for so many years. That the people of this isolated country will progress toward better lives is truly praiseworthy.

I choose to be encouraged that its recent defeats, and hope that it can improve the GOP's chances for future power, are pushing this White House to progress from its former hoodlum-like methods, toward a mature and reasonable image. And I applaud this development. Our position in world affairs has sunk so low that absolutely no one believes the administration's claims, as in its recent attempts to convince the world at large that Iran is aggravating the war in Iraq.

It is extremely hazardous to our future that the U.S. has sunk so low in world opinion. Under an administration that has proved its unreliability by attacking another country without any provocation, and creating a ruse for doing so that has been thoroughly discredited, this country has little reputation to rely on for dependability.

Abroad, the agreement with Korea is received with great skepticism, and Japan refuses to enter into the gifting part of it at all.

One area of uncertainty is whether North Korea has a highly enriched uranium program as alleged by Washington. North Korea has not acknowledged the existence of such a program. Highly enriched uranium can be the fissile material for nuclear weapons and its production can be much harder to detect than plutonium refinement.
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Japan will not join in giving aid to North Korea because of past abductions of its nationals by Pyongyang's agents, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in Tokyo.


That from the New Zealand Herald. This from the Globe and Mail:

A landmark agreement yesterday by North Korea to shut down its chief nuclear reactor and allow international inspections of the site is likely to be beset by a slew of difficulties, from convincing the Communist country's reclusive leaders to abide by their commitments to verifying compliance, experts said.

Washington's allegations have been too generally shady to be accepted by the world. What if we are really threatened? It would appear that the present inability to convince our fellow nations of being trustworthy is a worrisome deterrent to our ability to negotiate with the world.

North Korea may keep its bargain. It does not have a history of doing so.

The U.S. may be inclined to work toward world peace. It does not have a history of doing so.

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