Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Lessons in Bluff-Calling

I don't know if Russia's Vladimir Putin is a player or a playah, but he certainly knows how to call President Bush's bluff, and with style. After openly ridiculing the US in a press conference with Secretary of State Rice and Defense Secretary Gates, Mr. Putin has moved on with a visit to Iran where he met with leaders of the Caspian Sea countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as Russia and Iran) and joined with those leaders in a joint declaration aimed rather directly at the US, according to the NY Times.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said at a summit meeting of five Caspian Sea nations in Iran on Tuesday that any use of military force in the region was unacceptable. In a declaration, the countries agreed that none would allow their territories to be used as a base for military strikes against any of the others. ...

Mr. Putin’s comments and the declaration come at a time when the United States has refused to rule out military action to halt Iran’s nuclear energy program, which it believes masks a desire to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its program, including the enrichment of uranium, is solely for peaceful purposes. ...

“Not only should we reject the use of force, but also the mention of force as a possibility,” Mr. Putin said.
[Emphasis added].

The pontification by someone whose soul our president approved of aside, Mr. Putin has managed to box the US into a corner rather nicely. The US has relied on Kurdistan and Azerbaijan to facilitate transporting supplies to troops in Afghanistan and refueling military transports in the region:

Since the terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001, the Pentagon has built a military base in Kyrgyzstan to support operations in Afghanistan, and has expanded its collaboration with Azerbaijan, including underwriting improvements to a former Soviet airfield there. It also has an agreement allowing military transport planes en route to Afghanistan to refuel in Turkmenistan, a country that has made neutrality a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

The American presence and collaboration in the region have alarmed Moscow, while Washington’s potential access to improved airfields in two countries bordering Iran —Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan — has fueled speculation that the airfields could support actions against Tehran.


Now the US faces a loss of those support facilities if it even thinks about a "surgical strike" on Iranian targets of any kind for any reason.

It looks to me like the White House just got outplayed.

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