Let's You And Him Fight

Although folks in this country have lost interest in the Russian invasion of Georgia (except of course when one of the Republican nominees want to throw some red meat to their audience by rattling a sabre or two in Moscow's direction), people in Europe are still concerned. Rightfully so, they are geographically much closer to the action than we are. In trooping over to Watching America, I found a rather nice treatment of a conspiracy theory regarding the Georgia-Russia battle from Germany's Taz.

The latest conspiracy theory has been making the rounds for a couple of weeks and has already attracted a few prominent supporters. Russian President Vladimir Putin says he suspects someone in the United States of having provoked the war in Georgia in order to “give one of the American presidential candidates a campaign advantage.” Could the Georgian war be an intricate scheme to help present John McCain as a battle-hardened commander-in-chief in waiting? Sounds reckless, but the theory is gaining momentum because the Internet is now an alternative and simultaneously a mainstream medium.

The beauty of conspiracy theories like this one is that on a case-by-case basis they may even be correct. In this particular case, that’s entirely within the realm of possibility.

Here are the facts: Georgia’s President Michael Saakashvili, despite his protests that he is an innocent victim, made a surprise attack against the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia where Russian troops were already stationed. Certainly, Russia had used imperialistic pressure and provoked Georgia. But ever since the 1992 ceasefire agreement and the stationing of peacekeepers in the disputed province, Russia has been an official observer by mandate from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSZE). An attack against these troops such as was ordered by Saakashvili was and is, regardless of the context, prohibited by international law. That starting point begs the question of what would posses the leader of a small, militarily hopeless country to attack the military forces of a heavily armed super power? Two answers are possible: He is either an idiot or he feels confident of help from another super power.

Of course, either answer might be correct, given the size of the Georgian army as compared to that of the Russian, but the article gives further background which certainly seems to suggest the second possibility:

Saakashvili studied at Columbia University and has maintained good contacts in the United States. Among his closest allies in Washington are neo-conservative foreign policy people, close associates of Vice-President Dick Cheney, who now play major roles in John McCain’s presidential campaign. One of Cheney’s most experienced advisors, Joseph R. Wood, had visited Georgia shortly before the Georgian army attacked. Even the German newsmagazine “der Spiegel” suspected that Cheney had “meddled in Georgia as a favor to the Republican candidate for President.”

One of the shadiest figures in the drama is Washington lobbyist Randy Scheunemann, foreign policy expert and member of John McCain’s closest advisory team. Previously, he and his lobbying firm officially represented Georgia and had lobbied the State Department and Senators – including his future boss, John McCain – 49 times on behalf of his friend Saakashvili to promote Georgia’s acceptance into NATO. Scheunemann received nearly one million dollars for his efforts. He stopped working on behalf of Georgia when he became an official member of McCain’s election team, but the last installment of the million was given to him just a few weeks ago.

And here's where it gets rather intriguing. Mr. Scheunemann also has some interesting connections.

Scheunemann isn’t only a policy salesman threatened by the unseemly impression of conflicts of interest in his dealings. He also has long-term ties to neo-conservative circles as a known interventionist. As director of the Project for a New American Century, he played a central role in formulation of neo-con policies during the 1990’s. He also headed the “Committee for the Liberation of Iraq” which beat the propaganda drum for the invasion of Iraq. ...

What still isn't clear is why President Saakashvili would make such a move before the one candidate who might have come to his rescue was actually elected? There's the possibility that representations were made that the current administration would back him up, but it's hard to imagine with what, given the two wars the US military is currently engaged in. Or, he might have believed Sheunemann's neocon blather represented the prevailing philosophy of all Americans, but if so, he's not been reading the polls which make it clear a huge majority of Americans are tired of wars, especially the one in Iraq. Finally, there is always the possibility that Mr. Saakashvili is, if not an idiot, a sucker who got taken in by some smooth-talking political operatives anxious for another GOP victory.

Whatever the reason for his miscalculation, the interference and outright meddling by some Americans has given Russia yet another excuse for bellicosity, one that fits right in with their objection to the placement of the Star Wars Defense System in his backyard.

That's a dangerous game, one we don't need.