Thursday, April 25, 2013

Nightmare Scenario

(Click on image to enlarge and then return, please.)

David Horsey has presented us with a possible scenario that is frightening in its implication.  All things considered, it is certainly conceivable that the GOP could take over both houses of Congress and the White House by 2016.

Since Mitt Romney lost to President Obama on Nov. 6, the conventional wisdom has been that the Republican Party is in trouble. The less conventional truth is that it is the Democrats whose chances many be more bleak. ...

In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans won big in state legislative races, picking up 675 seats nationwide. Before that election, the GOP was in full control of 14 state legislatures while Democrats were in charge in 27. After the election, Republicans had won control in 26 states and Democrats' number had dropped to 17. As a result, Republicans were able to redraw congressional districts more to their liking in several key states. Redistricting has given Republicans such an advantage that they do not need to command anything close to a majority nationwide in order to retain control of the House of Representatives for years to come.

Republicans are also positioned well to take back power in the U.S. Senate in 2014. Here, again, being unpopular with a majority of Americans does not matter so much. Because each state gets two senators, no matter what their population may be, and because Republicans dominate in states such as Alaska and Wyoming that have fewer people than they have wild animals, the GOP has a built-in head start in the competition for Senate control.

In the coming election, there appears to be no Republican senator who is in dire risk of losing his seat, and the two who are retiring are from the GOP-leaning states of Nebraska and Georgia. Democrats, meanwhile, have six incumbent senators who are retiring, four of them from states that are favorable ground for Republicans – West Virginia, South Dakota, Iowa and Montana. ...

Republicans might blow an opportunity for victory by going crazy and nominating a man to please their fevered base -- Rand Paul or Rick Santorum -- but they could also make their pick someone from vote-rich Florida – Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio – and stand a good chance of winning the White House. Bush is the smarter brother in his famous political family and would appeal to the centrist voters who swing elections. Rubio is a youthful, fresh face of conservatism. Either man could cut into the Democrats’ Latino vote enough to sway an election.   [Emphasis added]

 All of this assumes that the Republican Party will finally be able to shake off the hold its basest base has on the incumbents who fear being primaried by Tea Party candidates.  Right now, a lot of money from folks like Karl Rove and his pals and the Koch Brothers is flowing like cheap wine at a toga party in order to do just that.  Nods toward immigration reform is one sign of that strategy.

And, as I mentioned yesterday, the revisionists are busily scrubbing the Bush name squeaky clean to leave a Jeb Bush path to the White House.

The biggest element, however, is one which Horsey rightfully emphasizes:  Republican control of state legislatures and governorships.  With the help of ALEC, districts were gerrymandered in most states, and legislation passed since then which makes Democratic victories even more unlikely.  Ironically, the Republican Party adapted the Howard Dean 50-state strategy to their own ends, while the Democrats decided to go with Rahm Emmanual's "muscle" a few states plan. 

So, yes, this nightmare could very well be coming up.  We won't want popcorn.  Just plenty of cat food.

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Blogger thurbers said...

And it isn't as if Obama is helping. Nor does the Dems following his lead.

And yes, I do think that Obamacare and the problems inplementing it will do great damage.

There comes a point where you have to tell the money guys to sit on it and spin, but the Dems are too stupid to realize they passed that date unless they end up with the crazy or someone Mitt Romney Clueless.

2:08 PM  

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