Troubling the Waters

It doesn't require a tin-foil chapeau for one to be suspicious of the developments and their timing in the Persian Gulf. Iran's capture of fifteen British sailors and marines for allegedly intruding into Iranian territorial waters may very well have set off a chain of events that will be disasterous in all sorts of ways. Many of us feared that sooner or later the Iranians would be provoked into making a stupid and inflammatory response to some perceived slight, one that might be used as justification for a US military response. This incident certainly could qualify. So far, according to the Los Angeles Times, diplomatic efforts are not bearing any fruit.

A diplomatic standoff between Britain and Iran over the capture last week of 15 British sailors and marines threatened to escalate Tuesday as an intense new round of diplomacy failed to end the crisis.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair warned that his government was prepared to move to "a different phase" if Iran did not quickly release the 14 men and one woman being held since Friday for allegedly entering Iranian waters. [Emphasis added]

The British Prime Minister's thinly veiled threat is worrisome, especially since Britain has maintained its presence in Iraq as the last effective US partner in that debacle. Lest we shrug this off as a strictly British-Iranian problem, an AP report from yesterday suggests the US is just as actively involved:

American warplanes screamed off two aircraft carriers Tuesday as the U.S. Navy staged its largest show of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, launching a mammoth exercise meant as a message to the Iranians.

The maneuvers with 15 warships and more than 100 aircraft were sure to heighten tensions with Iran, which has frequently condemned the U.S. military presence off its coast and is in a faceoff with the West over its nuclear program and its capture of a British naval team.

While they would not say when the war games were planned, U.S. commanders insisted the exercises were not a direct response to Friday's seizure of the 15 British sailors and marines, but they also made clear that the flexing of the Navy's military might was intended as a warning. [Emphasis added]

It is no secret that the present administration has been increasing the naval presence in the Gulf for months now. The original excuse for the sabre rattling has been the refusal of Iran to halt its nuclear development, but the Iranians have just given the current administration a handy second excuse.

If recent history repeats itself, the US will use the United Nations for a bit longer and then strike out on its own unless diplomatic pressure is brought to bear on all three parties to the current crisis. Hopefully somebody has the presence of mind and the power to step in to cool things off.

We neither need nor can afford another war.