One Tiny Sliver Of Sanity

It is hard to tell just what was involved in the Iranian capture of the fifteen British sailors and marines and then their rather sudden release. Was the whole thing just a stunt pulled by the unstable president of Iran for attention? Did the British engage in some quiet diplomacy behind the scenes which convinced the real power wielders in Iran that releasing the captured British was now the wiser action? Was there a third party who managed to get the message to Iran that the episode was giving the West a good excuse to widen the war in the Middle East? At this point, we just don't know. What we do know, however, is that the release of the captured Brits didn't change anything in the White House position on Iraq, according to an article in today's NY Times.

The Bush administration said Thursday that the release of 15 British sailors and marines held by Iran for two weeks created no new openings in dealing with Tehran, and it urged American allies to return their attention to enforcing new sanctions against Iran. ...

In interviews over the past two days, administration and intelligence officials said they had very little understanding of how the Iranians had reached their decision, or whether Mr. Ahmadinejad, whose own political position has been tenuous, was pressed by the country’s ruling mullahs to find a way out.

Washington’s guessing game is an indication, they said, of how little is known about who makes major decisions inside the Iranian government. But taken together, the administration’s public statements indicated a decision not to treat the release of the Britons as a potential diplomatic opening, but rather as evidence of Iran’s unpredictability.

“We just don’t see it as a new opportunity,” one State Department official said. [Emphasis added]

We've known all along that this administration doesn't do nuance when it comes to anything, especially when it comes to foreign policy. That stance gives the comment that "how little is known" about the Iranian ruling structure some rather telling context. It also explains the continuing truculence of most members of the administration when it comes to Iran.

Buried deep in the article, however, was this rather intriguing comment:

The release of the sailors and marines makes it easier for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to go forward with a meeting of Iraq’s neighbors, including representatives of Iran. Ms. Rice has said she would have no problem engaging Iranians in direct discussions about Iran’s activities in Iraq. [Emphasis added]

While such a comment may be nothing more than a nod to the pressure being brought to bear on the administration by Congress and American public opinion, it at least means that somebody recognizes the need to include all of the key players in the region for talks on Iraq. It ain't much, but at least it's something.