A Logical Conclusion
The current administration is braying about the success of "the surge" in Iraq. Deaths are down, Baghdad neighborhoods are safer, refugees are returning home. Yet for all the mutual backslapping and high fives, not one administration official or Congressional toady has suggested that now is a good time to start putting together an exit strategy. An editorial in today's Los Angeles Times noticed that fact as well.
Iraqi civilian and military deaths have plummeted in recent months, as has the number of American soldiers killed or wounded. Bombings are down, attacks on U.S. troops have plunged and the ghastly daily count of corpses bearing the signs of sectarian torture is markedly lower. While the U.S. military's data are rosier than some other tallies, all the indicators of violence are now, mercifully, pointing down. As a result, some of the 2 million Iraqi refugees who have fled their homes have begun to come back -- 46,030 of them reentered the country in October, according to the Iraqi government.
Those statistics, as the editorialist notes, are a little suspect.
Analysts will continue to debate how much of the progress is because of the "surge" of 30,000 U.S. troops last spring, how much is the result of Iraqi Sunnis in Anbar province and elsewhere making common cause with the United States against Al Qaeda terrorists, and how much is because ethnic cleansing of some neighborhoods is complete and the "enemies" within have fled or been killed. All of these factors undoubtedly played a role. And the daily carnage, though lessened, remains horrific. The high casualty rate earlier this year made 2007 the deadliest for U.S. troops in this tragic misadventure.
In other words, people are still dying, still being tortured and being buried in mass graves, just not at the rate in Baghdad that they once were. In other words, the civil war that we unleased is still going on, it's just that one side appears to be winning at this point.
The excuse that we have to remain in Iraq to keep the terrorists from following us home (an excuse that never did make sense) is no longer seen as viable, yet the administration continues to operate as if it still is. As a result, the administration has once again moved the goal posts:
Without actually saying so, the Bush administration is now trying to move the goal posts, yet again, by arguing that stopping the violence in and of itself constitutes success. The president and the secretary of Defense have both mentioned South Korea as a model of where the United States might be heading in Iraq: leaving perhaps 35,000 U.S. troops there, perhaps for a decade or more, to keep a modicum of peace, prevent the country from splitting up and keep the neighbors out. But U.S. troops in South Korea were helping to keep an external enemy, North Korea, from crossing an armistice line. U.S. troops in Iraq are trying to suppress a sectarian civil war, not to protect a fragile peace. Neither the American nor the Iraqi publics will tolerate a prolonged U.S. occupation of Iraq. The surge has created an opportunity to leave -- and leave we must.
This administration has made it clear that it has no intention of leaving Iraq, especially since no new oil law favoring western oil companies has been passed by the Iraqi Parliament. Unless and until Congress finally steps up and does its job by refusing to finance another month of this fiasco, we will stay, and with a lot more than 35,000 troops in place.
And the madness and the butchery will continue.
Iraqi civilian and military deaths have plummeted in recent months, as has the number of American soldiers killed or wounded. Bombings are down, attacks on U.S. troops have plunged and the ghastly daily count of corpses bearing the signs of sectarian torture is markedly lower. While the U.S. military's data are rosier than some other tallies, all the indicators of violence are now, mercifully, pointing down. As a result, some of the 2 million Iraqi refugees who have fled their homes have begun to come back -- 46,030 of them reentered the country in October, according to the Iraqi government.
Those statistics, as the editorialist notes, are a little suspect.
Analysts will continue to debate how much of the progress is because of the "surge" of 30,000 U.S. troops last spring, how much is the result of Iraqi Sunnis in Anbar province and elsewhere making common cause with the United States against Al Qaeda terrorists, and how much is because ethnic cleansing of some neighborhoods is complete and the "enemies" within have fled or been killed. All of these factors undoubtedly played a role. And the daily carnage, though lessened, remains horrific. The high casualty rate earlier this year made 2007 the deadliest for U.S. troops in this tragic misadventure.
In other words, people are still dying, still being tortured and being buried in mass graves, just not at the rate in Baghdad that they once were. In other words, the civil war that we unleased is still going on, it's just that one side appears to be winning at this point.
The excuse that we have to remain in Iraq to keep the terrorists from following us home (an excuse that never did make sense) is no longer seen as viable, yet the administration continues to operate as if it still is. As a result, the administration has once again moved the goal posts:
Without actually saying so, the Bush administration is now trying to move the goal posts, yet again, by arguing that stopping the violence in and of itself constitutes success. The president and the secretary of Defense have both mentioned South Korea as a model of where the United States might be heading in Iraq: leaving perhaps 35,000 U.S. troops there, perhaps for a decade or more, to keep a modicum of peace, prevent the country from splitting up and keep the neighbors out. But U.S. troops in South Korea were helping to keep an external enemy, North Korea, from crossing an armistice line. U.S. troops in Iraq are trying to suppress a sectarian civil war, not to protect a fragile peace. Neither the American nor the Iraqi publics will tolerate a prolonged U.S. occupation of Iraq. The surge has created an opportunity to leave -- and leave we must.
This administration has made it clear that it has no intention of leaving Iraq, especially since no new oil law favoring western oil companies has been passed by the Iraqi Parliament. Unless and until Congress finally steps up and does its job by refusing to finance another month of this fiasco, we will stay, and with a lot more than 35,000 troops in place.
And the madness and the butchery will continue.
Labels: Iraq War
posted by Diane at 4:14 AM
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