An Old Dog Still Has Teeth
I read an op-ed piece in yesterday's Sacramento Bee written by Eugene Robinson (who usually publishes in the Washington Post). Mr. Robinson reminds us that while George W. Bush is in the twilight of his term in office, there's plenty of mischief he can still get into, and all signs point to the determination to do so.
George W. Bush's presidency seems exhausted and irrelevant, but that's a dangerous illusion. The Decider remains in command of the world's most advanced and powerful military force, and he has just a few months to tie up what he might consider loose ends – a thought sobering enough to send Amy Winehouse to rehab.
We can only hope he considers his "denuclearization" agreement with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il a sufficient legacy. Assuming the deal keeps North Korea from making more nuclear weapons, Bush will be 1-for-3 in dealing with his Axis of Evil. (If you ignore the fact that Pyongyang went nuclear on Bush's watch, that is.) As for the other Evils, we know the story: Iraq is a bloody quagmire that has claimed more than 4,000 American lives, and Iran is more powerful than at any time since the fall of the shah. Bush's legacy on the world stage is defined by Abu Ghraib, Guantánamo, secret CIA prisons and waterboarding. His successor will face an enormous task restoring America's image and moral standing.
Now, while Ruth will vehemently dispute that the North Korean agreement was a good thing, at least the administration accomplished something without bombs or the threat of bombs. At least they used what verbal skills they possess (and I happen to think Chris Hill is one of our better negotiators at State, no matter who the president is), without lacing their words with that ominous phrase, "All options are on the table."
Mr. Robinson's point, however, is that Bush can still muck things up for the next administration in two primary areas: Iraq and Iran.
It's not hard to fathom the ominous, potentially catastrophic implications of a U.S. attack on Iran's enrichment plants and other nuclear installations. Meanwhile, on another front, Bush is working as hard as he can to cement an agreement on the long-term status of U.S. forces in Iraq before the new president takes office. The basic issue being negotiated appears to be whether the United States military will retain much of the authority and responsibility of an occupying power, even as it ostensibly surrenders control to the Iraqi government.
The Iraqi government is stalling on the agreement the Bush White House wants, and with good reason. It knows that Mr. Bush is a lame duck, and the next administration, whether headed by Sen. McCain or Sen. Obama, will have to start from scratch anyway. Besides, what is the White House going to do about it? Bomb Iraq? Again?
Iran, on the other hand, is a different story. Many in the White House are just itching for another fight, and with a huge chunk of our military already next door, taking the next step along the axis looks to be a natural. The White House has admitted that it has committed several hundred millions of dollars towards infiltrating and undermining the current Iranian government. The infiltrators are also presumably gathering intelligence on the nuclear program, including the location of target sites.
Will that be Mr. Bush's "October Surprise"? His way of saying "So long, suckers!" It's more probable than not, unfortunately, because this Congress has made it so abundantly clear that they will do nothing to stop the madness in any way.
I am not optimistic.
198 days is a long time.
George W. Bush's presidency seems exhausted and irrelevant, but that's a dangerous illusion. The Decider remains in command of the world's most advanced and powerful military force, and he has just a few months to tie up what he might consider loose ends – a thought sobering enough to send Amy Winehouse to rehab.
We can only hope he considers his "denuclearization" agreement with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il a sufficient legacy. Assuming the deal keeps North Korea from making more nuclear weapons, Bush will be 1-for-3 in dealing with his Axis of Evil. (If you ignore the fact that Pyongyang went nuclear on Bush's watch, that is.) As for the other Evils, we know the story: Iraq is a bloody quagmire that has claimed more than 4,000 American lives, and Iran is more powerful than at any time since the fall of the shah. Bush's legacy on the world stage is defined by Abu Ghraib, Guantánamo, secret CIA prisons and waterboarding. His successor will face an enormous task restoring America's image and moral standing.
Now, while Ruth will vehemently dispute that the North Korean agreement was a good thing, at least the administration accomplished something without bombs or the threat of bombs. At least they used what verbal skills they possess (and I happen to think Chris Hill is one of our better negotiators at State, no matter who the president is), without lacing their words with that ominous phrase, "All options are on the table."
Mr. Robinson's point, however, is that Bush can still muck things up for the next administration in two primary areas: Iraq and Iran.
It's not hard to fathom the ominous, potentially catastrophic implications of a U.S. attack on Iran's enrichment plants and other nuclear installations. Meanwhile, on another front, Bush is working as hard as he can to cement an agreement on the long-term status of U.S. forces in Iraq before the new president takes office. The basic issue being negotiated appears to be whether the United States military will retain much of the authority and responsibility of an occupying power, even as it ostensibly surrenders control to the Iraqi government.
The Iraqi government is stalling on the agreement the Bush White House wants, and with good reason. It knows that Mr. Bush is a lame duck, and the next administration, whether headed by Sen. McCain or Sen. Obama, will have to start from scratch anyway. Besides, what is the White House going to do about it? Bomb Iraq? Again?
Iran, on the other hand, is a different story. Many in the White House are just itching for another fight, and with a huge chunk of our military already next door, taking the next step along the axis looks to be a natural. The White House has admitted that it has committed several hundred millions of dollars towards infiltrating and undermining the current Iranian government. The infiltrators are also presumably gathering intelligence on the nuclear program, including the location of target sites.
Will that be Mr. Bush's "October Surprise"? His way of saying "So long, suckers!" It's more probable than not, unfortunately, because this Congress has made it so abundantly clear that they will do nothing to stop the madness in any way.
I am not optimistic.
198 days is a long time.
Labels: 110th Congress, Bush Legacy, Iran, Iraq, North Korea
posted by Diane at 4:41 AM
3 Comments:
The agreement would have been just peachy if it hadn't been delayed for 7+ years by the "tactics" of the worst administration ever of belligerent threats to get its way. But yes, I do think the agreement is a stopgap measure that gets N. Korea what it wants now, for promises of future cooperation.
Juan Cole linked to a UPI article that says Maliki told the Bush and Iran he won't allow the US to use Iraq land or air space to attack Iran. Cole says it's amazing what all that petroleum does for the pm's self-esteem, but I can't help wondering how the hell he'd stop us when we've got the aircraft and troops already there. -- Sparkle Plenty
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A military action against Iran will have the unavoidable production of an Iranian bomb. There simply is no military solution to Iran's nuclear program. They are dispersed, deep underground and well protect by layer upon layer of concrete. If it were otherwise, Israel would have finished off the Iran program long ago.
Bush may still try to bomb. My bet is that he will not since he has no time to prepare the American people and the Pentagon is strongly against him on that.
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