Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Well, Duh

Tonight the candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination will hold another debate, this one with now-front runner Rick Perry in attendance. The debate will take place at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi, California, which is, in some respects quite fitting. I think it safe to say that there will be plenty of references to and accolades for Saint Ronald uttered by the candidates, each of whom will claim his mantle.

One of the ironies is that it will probably be one of the few visits to this state any of these candidates will make. California is not exactly a hot-bed of Republicanism, as the Sacramento Bee points out, and with good reason. the years since George H.W. Bush won California – the last Republican presidential candidate to do so – the party flailed, losing ground to Democrats as Latino registration increased and white, non-Hispanic voters' share of the electorate fell.

The state is now so heavily Democratic that no Republican presidential candidate is expected to campaign seriously here in the general election against President Barack Obama in 2012.

"We could easily see this coming," Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. "What has been remarkable to me as a nonpartisan pollster is that the Republican Party has never chosen to confront this particular problem. With the Latino advantage to the Democrats, it's really a major uphill battle for the Republicans, and I think that's what's changed over time."
[Emphasis added]

While there are other elements at work, among them a strong union presence which helped Democrats run the table in the November, 2010 election, the increase in Latino voters as immigrants have become citizens and the next generation has reached voting age is a strong index of how the demographics have changed in the state. The Republicans, more interested in immigrant bashing than in expanding the party's influence, fell asleep at the switch.

...the proportion of registered voters who are Latino grew by about 2.3 million, from 10 percent of the state's registered voters in 1992 to 22 percent today, according to the poll. In the 2008 presidential election, those Latinos provided Democrats an advantage of more than nine percentage points.

And that doesn't look to change in California if the current crop of candidates fielded by the GOP for 2012 is any indication. This ain't Reagan's Republican Party any more. It's the Tea Party's. It's also the Koch Brothers, Inc.'s party and that of Wall Street and BofA. Less government, more money for the moneyed: that's the foundation of the GOP these days.

In a state with 12% unemployment and a devastated public education system, the Tea Party and its various iterations don't have much to say, especially to a significant portion of the electorate.

So, Welcome to California, folks. Oh, and dress comfortably. You can expect triple-digit temperatures today.

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Blogger Hecate said...

I love you.

4:20 PM  
Blogger ms fahrenheit said...

So your state sucks too, eh?

4:22 PM  
Blogger ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®© said...

Jesus, tax cuts, job creators, socialism.

That's all they've got, right?

Everybody drink now.

4:27 PM  
Anonymous xan said...

Huntsman could in fact beat Obama. Huntsman, however, cannot get more than, oh, 6% in any R early primary.

and btw, hit count is down noticeably at my site too, and it's a friggin Civil War magazine. I am wondering if there is starting to be a decline in the number of people who can afford any online access at all beyond rudimentary library stuff.

6:47 PM  
Blogger PurpleGirl said...

Do you think it is possible that as the number of Latino voters increases, the Democrats could reverse the tax situation in CA and start increasing revenues and fixing the educational system at both the elementary/secondary and university levels?

6:04 AM  

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