Monday, September 08, 2008

Things That Don't Work

While I tend to be on the side of generosity, and prefer to think that the vast majority of right wing adherents are simply not able to comprehend complicated ideas like: your vote is meant to create good government for you. I also don't watch 'American Idol' or skip those thoughtful articles with big words. This seems to be a failing common to liberals, who keep trying to make life better for everyone.

The kind of visceral hate for those better off - hate that has come out in an electorate that wants to see dumb crooks elevated to powers of decision - inclines some of us to think Democracy has failed. That a dimwitted media accedes to lies, and elevates them to the same status as facts, would appear to seal its doom. I am afraid the discouragement will keep some of us away from the polls, and urge readers to hang in there. Growing economic chaos is likely to make even the least intelligent voter see something wrong in what they're being told. Maybe we need to simplify the message.

As Professor Wombat and I were discussing this morning in comments at Eschaton, there have been eight years of proof that 19th century trickle down theories don't work. Without a living wage, consumers disappear. Without consumers, the economy has no wheels to run on. The philosophy that directing government resources only to the wealthy will make a healthy economy has produced a mess. The rejection of the regulation of financial industry has created the present housing disaster, by eliminating simple numerical facts, that to afford a house a consumer needed a computed level of income.

Last time I bought a house, it was about 10% down, and an income that (spread over 20 years of mortgage) would allow a monthly payment of a set amount which I don't recall, but was a fixed figure on a scale accessed by all mortgage lenders. Without the amount necessary to support repayment, mortgages were not approved. When that standard was trashed, and mortgages based on fantasy became standard, financial overseers like the Fed should have stepped in and stopped a pending disaster. Under cynical assumption of wisdom above and beyond traditional standards, this worst administration ever called for more 'consumer confidence' - that would be the new standard for underpinnings of our economy. The bundled worthless mortgages were sold to unsuspecting investors, who knew that laws determined what the mortgages were based on. The fantasy grew. More investors bought houses and buildings they couldn't afford, and more investors relied on laws that were being ignored.

The spectacle that we see now is the government of crooks, who stole away the underpinnings of our economy, trying to keep their farce from falling about their ears, just long enough to pass it on to the next president and his executive branch.

We are being sold an increasingly twisted version of reality. What we have now is falling apart.

This morning, we were talking about the fact that economics as science that would allow such an obviously flawed theory as trickle down to continue, probably is based on flimsy principles itself. Professor Wombat is tracking down for me an article he saw recently that found a physics theorem that has been disproved, which was a big deal in early economics. Meanwhile, I like the following article, which really was used to dispute opposition to global warming.

Time again for Shtetl-Optimized’s Mistake of the Week series! This week my inspiration comes from a paper that’s been heating up the quantum blogosphere (the Blochosphere?): Is Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computation Really Possible? by M. I. Dyakonov. I’ll start by quoting my favorite passages:

The enormous literature devoted to this subject (Google gives 29300 hits for “fault-tolerant quantum computation”) is purely mathematical. It is mostly produced by computer scientists with a limited understanding of physics and a somewhat restricted perception of quantum mechanics as nothing more than unitary transformations in Hilbert space plus “entanglement.”

Whenever there is a complicated issue, whether in many-particle physics, climatology, or economics, one can be almost certain that no theorem will be applicable and/or relevant, because the explicit or implicit assumptions, on which it is based, will never hold in reality.

I’ll leave the detailed critique of Dyakonov’s paper to John Preskill, the Pontiff, and other “computer scientists” who understand the fault-tolerance theorem much better than a mere physicist like me. Here I instead want to take issue with an idea that surfaces again and again in Dyakonov’s paper, is almost universally accepted, but is nevertheless false. The idea is this: that it’s possible for a theory to “work on paper but not in the real world.”

The proponents of this idea go wrong, not in thinking that a theory can fail in the real world, but in thinking that if it fails, then the theory can still “work on paper.” If a theory claims to describe a phenomenon but doesn’t, then the theory doesn’t work, period — neither in the real world nor on paper. In my view, the refrain that something “works on paper but not in the real world” serves mainly as an intellectual crutch: a way for the lazy to voice their opinion that something feels wrong to them, without having to explain how or where it’s wrong.


While claiming that throwing money at the 'entrepreneur', (a misnomer when applied to buyout firms that throttle cash cows), will create a cascade of money downhill into the pockets of the workers, conservative economists cannot show that it works. Au contraire, its enactment under the occupied White House has proved definitively it doesn't. This should mean it would be erased, and discounted. But the right wing is running on its theories, screaming frantically that it will work if we just keep it going - it works on paper. Bumper sticker paper.

Okay, pointy heads are just aghast at seeing that a majority of voters could use their own power to vote, to continue an economic disaster which makes them unable to afford today what they could easily buy about six months ago.

Maybe instead of writing beautiful arguments for factual bases for economics, we could spend the next two months making slogans, so that the media and other trolls would be able to understand. Can I hear a vote for "Fight Abortion, Pay a Living Wage" ... "Your Wallet Is At Stake in November" ... "Try Reason, The Opposite Hasn't Worked" ... "Faith Based Voting Preys On YOU" ... "Yes, It Can Get Worse" ... "$$ Sent Another Engineer in China Through College So Lost My Job, Got Three Service Jobs, Went Shopping, This Is Me Whining" Your suggestions welcome.

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8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Had a WTF moment late last week, here are some of the words I used to describe it in an email to a friend - "Why is there even a contest between McCain & Obama in the first place and why in hell could it possibly appear to be close?? Reality: 1-out of 300 million people in this country, maybe 2% might be wealthy or connected enough to fiscally benefit from Bushco's polices or who fear prosecution for enabling those policies. 2-Add to that the percent of radical gun nuts who think all dems want to pry their guns from said gun nut's 'cold, dead hands' 3-add to that the religious crazies who for various reasons (end times, abortion, dominionism among others). Alan Keyes won about 30% in his race against Obama and others have postulated that's the percentage of republican 'true believers' who vote. Yet polls show McCain within a few percentage points of Obama - WTF?
Some possible explanations:
1-the polls are dishonest or the questions misleading (dunno, was never polled)
2-the media is dishonest WRT the polling, or whatever screwed the exit polls starting 2000 is still operational
3-our fellow citizens are clueless as to their own self-interest and worse, proud of their ignorance.
4-a majority of our fellow citizens are mean, brutal & stupid enough to approve of Bushco's polices especially WRT to torture, detention, domestic spying, war crimes & a war they and theirs don't have to fight. Furthermore their greatest joy in the world is baiting & humiliating 'liberals' w/o regard or concern for their own very real & personal cost for so doing.

Any other ideas?"

The constitutional democratic republic that used to govern the United States is stone cold dead, replaced with something else that I don't know a good term for. The nation that used to be the United States is fading fast. Yeah I'm voting and encouraging others to and I'm paying attention to reality and again, encouraging others to do the same. But this time, more than ever, I regard this as simply another exercise in futility.
If voting could change things, they'd make it illegal.

12:04 PM  
Blogger Ruth said...

That's the sort of reaction a lot of us are having to the news that complete lies are taking support from reality based positive politicians to the lowest sort of crooks, who want more chances to steal from everyone who works for a living instead of stealing. And all I can do is just keep telling the truth, and working for the best. Don't let it throw you completely.

3:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wasn't around for your exchange w/ Prof. Wombat, but
it seems to me that Economics is a social science, whereas the other disciplines you mentioned are natural sciences. The difference is in fact very profound, and comes from the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. This basically asserts that we cannot know anything underneath of the limit of our resolution. Now for Mathematicians, this is a purely numerical endeavor, with (Newtonian) Physics it may be rolling balls and ramps (I'm being simplistic here). But with Economics, the Observer is also a Participant, part of the 'experiment'. We cannot determine anything more subtle than the limit of resolution of a human. Sure, we can track unemployment and income, but maybe concepts like "demand" don't really mean that much in a concrete sense. We can't isolate "demand", any more than we can isolte "chi". In natural sciences, if an experimental result does not support a theory, it is sometimes difficult to ignore the possibility that the experiment wasn't done correctly. In economics, the experiments are done on people, by people, often using the barrel of a gun, as in Mao's experiment, or the disaster-capitalist experiment of post-Katrina NO. Granting the Social Sciences equivalence with Natural Sciences is what gave us social darwinism. What I am pushing at here, is that treating Economics like a natural science gives credibility to the experiments, and to the logic which was used to pursue those experiments. But the experiment is social engineering, and does not concern a naturasl phenomenon. And the predicted outcome can be good or bad. However, couching the argument in terms of trickle-down with the utmost care to make sure that the logic is above board and scientific, cannot be used to obscure the fact that it is nothing more than a give-away to the rich.

8:01 PM  
Blogger Ruth said...

And Larry,DFH, we have the results that leave your conclusion irrefutable. Of course, the 'right wing voter' is by definition irrational for using the means to protect his/her rights to throw away all our rights.

3:09 AM  
Blogger Ruth said...

and,Larry, DFH, your pumpkin patch was big with viewers, see the hits at http://www.flickr.com/photos/24541926@N08/2725411678/in/photostream/

3:18 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Really, people.

Here's why conservative voters don't vote for the Dems (from Wikipedia):

A majority of liberals favor diplomacy over military action, stem cell research, the legalization of same-sex marriage, secular government, stricter gun control, and environmental protection laws as well as the preservation of abortion rights. Immigration and cultural diversity is deemed positive; liberals favor cultural pluralism, a system in which immigrants retain their native culture in addition to adopting their new culture. They tend to be divided on free trade agreements and organizations such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Most liberals oppose increased military standing and the display of the Ten Commandments in public buildings.

Believe it or not, some people just disagree with you.

4:50 PM  
Blogger Ruth said...

Thank you,'a conservative'- had never seen that wiki entry before. Too bad it doesn't mention that the specific instances chosen illustrate that 'liberalism' refers to a respect for the Rule of Law, individuals' freedoms and the constitution. We do study history, and understand that the regime now in power attempts to substitute its ideology, a shifting substance, for the Rule of Law. While liberals may differ with individual laws, they do support the legislative branch's role and oppose the executive branch's usurpation of it. Also, 'support immigration' muddies what liberals support. Again, the Rule of Law, which gives fairness to the process of immigration while guarding against employers' violating law while promoting illegal immigration that gives them cheap labor without any support systems would be highly preferable to what we have (just described), a position which is rational.

1:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saying that there exists somewhere a wikipedia page (!) that you can't even bother to properly cite, isn't really any sort of proof.

There's also a wikipedia page that says conservatives favor anonymous sex in public bathrooms, sex with underage congressional pages, sex while wearing two wetsuits, etc.

2:50 AM  

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