An Exit In Sight?
President Bush may have gotten an early Christmas present. The Iraqi cabinet has overwhelmingly approved an agreement to allow US troops to remain in Iraq until 2011. It's not quite the agreement Mr. Bush wanted, and it's certainly not the agreement I wanted, but it does at least set forth time tables for withdrawal. From today's NY Times:
The proposed agreement, which took nearly a year to negotiate with the United States, not only sets a date for American troop withdrawal, but puts new restrictions on American combat operations in Iraq starting Jan. 1 and requires an American military pullback from urban areas by June 30. Those hard dates reflect a significant concession by the departing Bush administration, which had been publicly averse to timetables.
Iraq also obtained a significant degree of jurisdiction in some cases over serious crimes committed by Americans who are off duty and not on bases.
One other significant concession by the US was involved: the US cannot launch attacks on Iraq's neighbors (Iran and Syria) from Iraqi soil. This concession apparently soothed Iran enough for them to give the nod to the deal. But is it a done deal?
Not yet. The agreement must also be approved by the Iraqi Parliament, and that might not be the given Iraqi President al-Maliki is hoping for. Although the Shi'ite Grand Ayatollah has given his blessing to the pact, other more militant Shi'ites are not so supportive:
It remains unclear how hardened opponents of the agreement might respond, particularly followers of the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr. After the cabinet vote, Sadrist politicians, reiterating their opposition to the accord, claimed that as a procedural matter, parliamentary approval would require a two-thirds majority. Supporters say a simple majority will suffice.
And the Sunnis are also balking. Many of their cabinet members didn't bother showing up for the cabinet vote, keeping their powder dry for the parliamentary battle. Most fear the exit of the US will allow the Shi'ite majority to completely take over the country, resulting in further internecine battles.
At least it's a start, one that President Elect Obama will have to carry through to completion. He had initially indicated an 11-month withdrawal plan could be put together, but has since backed down from that stance. I see no real reason for three years rather than eleven months, but I suspect Mr. Obama fears that the Iraqi security forces just wouldn't be ready to keep order in their nation. I suspect he also doesn't want to start his administration looking "soft" on military issues.
Still, the nature of the agreement is such that President Obama will have some room to maneuver. I hope he uses that room to bring the troops and the mercenaries home in less than the three years contemplated. The Bush administration made enough of a mess in that country and in this one. It's long past time for that misadventure to be over.
The proposed agreement, which took nearly a year to negotiate with the United States, not only sets a date for American troop withdrawal, but puts new restrictions on American combat operations in Iraq starting Jan. 1 and requires an American military pullback from urban areas by June 30. Those hard dates reflect a significant concession by the departing Bush administration, which had been publicly averse to timetables.
Iraq also obtained a significant degree of jurisdiction in some cases over serious crimes committed by Americans who are off duty and not on bases.
One other significant concession by the US was involved: the US cannot launch attacks on Iraq's neighbors (Iran and Syria) from Iraqi soil. This concession apparently soothed Iran enough for them to give the nod to the deal. But is it a done deal?
Not yet. The agreement must also be approved by the Iraqi Parliament, and that might not be the given Iraqi President al-Maliki is hoping for. Although the Shi'ite Grand Ayatollah has given his blessing to the pact, other more militant Shi'ites are not so supportive:
It remains unclear how hardened opponents of the agreement might respond, particularly followers of the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr. After the cabinet vote, Sadrist politicians, reiterating their opposition to the accord, claimed that as a procedural matter, parliamentary approval would require a two-thirds majority. Supporters say a simple majority will suffice.
And the Sunnis are also balking. Many of their cabinet members didn't bother showing up for the cabinet vote, keeping their powder dry for the parliamentary battle. Most fear the exit of the US will allow the Shi'ite majority to completely take over the country, resulting in further internecine battles.
At least it's a start, one that President Elect Obama will have to carry through to completion. He had initially indicated an 11-month withdrawal plan could be put together, but has since backed down from that stance. I see no real reason for three years rather than eleven months, but I suspect Mr. Obama fears that the Iraqi security forces just wouldn't be ready to keep order in their nation. I suspect he also doesn't want to start his administration looking "soft" on military issues.
Still, the nature of the agreement is such that President Obama will have some room to maneuver. I hope he uses that room to bring the troops and the mercenaries home in less than the three years contemplated. The Bush administration made enough of a mess in that country and in this one. It's long past time for that misadventure to be over.
Labels: Iraq War
posted by Diane at 3:45 AM
1 Comments:
Still, the nature of the agreement is such that President Obama will have some room to maneuver. I hope he uses that room to bring the troops and the mercenaries home in less than the three years contemplated. The Bush administration made enough of a mess in that country and in this one. It's long past time for that misadventure to be over.
Dream on. There's ALWAYS a good reason to continue a war. Obama's every much a creature of the military/industrial/national security state as McCain, or Bush, or Biden, or Clinton...
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